Is a Rally to $1.70 Coming?

Altcoins

XRP is holding above $1.34 support while approaching a resistance cluster near $1.42 on the daily chart.

That price range has become more important as recent futures activity eases from an elevated monthly level and exchange-flow data offers an incomplete view of supply.

A recovery has reached its first resistance

The XRP/USD daily chart showed XRP near $1.37 at the time of writing, placing price above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.34. This level has acted as the immediate anchor during the pullback from the September high near $1.70.

The first resistance range sits at $1.425-$1.428, where the 50-day simple moving average near $1.4254 overlaps with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $1.4278. XRP also remains beneath a descending trendline that passes through the high-$1.40s, creating another chart reference above the moving average.

Daily RSI was near 42.3, below the 50 midpoint and its own moving average. That leaves momentum subdued during the rebound. A sustained recovery through the $1.425-$1.428 range could shift attention toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level near $1.53.

Futures positions have eased from an elevated month

A CryptoQuant analysis found that XRP’s 30-day average open interest on Binance had reached an eight-month high of about $511 million. Its latest daily reading was lower, near $467 million, while the 30-day rolling open-interest Z-score stood around -0.99.

The comparison shows that the earlier surge in outstanding futures positions has eased from its recent average. Open interest includes contracts held by bullish and bearish traders, so the data cannot identify which side has been closing positions. It does show that XRP is carrying less current futures activity than the level that produced the eight-month monthly average.

Exchange activity gives only a partial supply picture

A second CryptoQuant reading noted a rising share of XRP withdrawal transactions while exchange-reserve trends diverged. Withdrawal dominance can indicate that more transfers are moving away from exchange wallets than toward them, which may reduce readily available supply in some circumstances.

Transaction share measures transfer frequency rather than net volume. A large number of small withdrawals can sit beside a few large exchange deposits, producing a very different supply picture from the one implied by transaction count. Broader reserve declines and netflow data would provide firmer evidence that XRP is leaving exchange balances at scale.

Withdrawal-heavy activity also appeared during an earlier period when Binance withdrawals exceeded deposits. The current setup differs because the latest flow reading now sits beside a futures market that has cooled from a much higher recent average.

The lower support zone tests the broader structure

If XRP cannot maintain the current pullback area, the daily chart points to a deeper range where several longer-term references gather. The zone’s relevance comes from the overlap of Fibonacci and moving-average levels, rather than one exact support price.

The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, a constructive medium-term feature of the chart. The $1.26-$1.28 range gains its nearer importance from the 61.8% retracement and the 100-day and 200-day averages clustered around it; the moving-average cross provides the broader backdrop.

A daily close above the $1.42 resistance cluster, followed by trading that holds around the recovered range, would improve the technical reading. Steadier open interest during that move would suggest that price is gaining support without returning to the earlier pace of futures-position growth.

A move back below $1.34 would place the deeper confluence zone under greater attention. Exchange withdrawals would carry more analytical weight if reserve data later confirms sustained outflows and spot demand remains visible alongside the chart recovery.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical indicators and onchain metrics are interpretive tools, not guarantees of future price movement.

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